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Sunday, May 8, 2016

Time for Cable companies and content providers in the US to evolve.

You keep reading that Comcast with 27.7Million subscribers with average revenue of $100 per customer does not want to make available their content including USA Network, Bravo, E!, CNBC, MSNBC, Syfy for streaming. They will allow only their subscribers to stream.

Just as it required old management to leave before companies like Microsoft embraced cloud services as opposed to Windows and Office, it is time for the management to change and consolidation to happen.

For $100, people get many channels they never ever watch. So, out of 200 channels, people actually want to watch only 40 channels but they are willing to pay $50, the revenue per channel is $1.25 instead of $0.50. Let the channels which people do not watch disappear. Let the shopping channels pay more money to service providers. Also, by offering TV only over Internet, the cable companies could cut their costs. No need to transmit cable and Internet signals. No need for extra hardware. Also, by offering channels over internet, content providers including Comcast can significantly expand the number of subscribers to 27.7M in the US to the entire world. Just as DirectTV got absorbed by ATT, Dish Network can also be absorbed by another service provider like a Verizon. There can be roaming arrangements for Internet between all internet service providers as in cellular data. Satellite may be required only where there is no Internet or Satellite can be used for Internet TV because downstream bandwidth on Satellite is much better than upstream.

Internet service providers will win if there is no such thing as unlimited data. It can be pay per use. Let the free market decide how much bandwidth is needed by consumers. High efficiency codecs allow very decent 720p signal to be sent with just 1Mbps downstream. Most people cannot tell the difference between 720p and 1080p on their TV. On Mobile devices with screens 10" or less need no more than 480p. The costs incurred by internet service providers will come down as usage comes down.

Content providers will win because the potential subscribers are huge. At some point the broadcast TV network is not required. Just stream. Of  course the FCC must allow that too. DVR is only in the cloud. It is just a stream. Anyway, their content is saved somewhere.

Consumers will win because they will pay perhaps $50 a month for content instead of $100. They may pay $60 for faster cable if they want higher definition TV than 720p and their watching patterns but they may pay $40 less than currently.

I do not see any losers in this. It can happen.



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