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Sunday, November 23, 2014

My opinion about Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel cell Car.

Here is what I gathered from announcements and public info.

By the time the Toyota Mirai car is available in the US, rebates will be gone. MSRP $57k probably means that actual price paid plus taxes and registration will be $57k.

Toyota has a warranty of 100k miles for 8 years. Apparently they provide fuel for 3yrs at 12k miles per yr. Estimated MPG is 60. Current price per gallon is $1 in Southern California.

Since most 4 cylinder Toyotas last 150k+ miles and 6 cylinder toyotas last 200k+ miles, let us assume that Mirai would last 200k miles. At 12k miles per year, that would be 16 years. If the value is zero at 16 years, the cost per yr without considering fuel, maintenance, insurance is about $3.5k. Since Toyota pays 36k miles of Hydrogen, 114k miles at $1 per gallon would cost $2k which is barely $250 per yr for 9 yrs. So cost per yr including fuel is $3.75k.

Mirai is bigger than Toyota corolla and smaller than Toyota camry. So, I assume that it is about the size of Prius in the cabin with more luggage room than a Corolla. A new 4 cylinder Camry can be had for about $25k on the road and expected to last over 150k miles which is over 12yrs. Cost per year in $2k not counting gas. At $4 per gallon and just 25mpg overall, it costs about $24k to run a camry for 150k miles. That is $4.5k per yr.

So, that means Mirai is cheaper than Camry. Compare it to Corolla and the answer may be that Mirai costs bit more than Corolla per year but then it is a bigger and quieter car and certainly has a bigger cool factor than Corolla.

If you buy a Tesla for $75k on the road (without rebates) and fuel is free (charge only at the free stations) and if you are lucky and the battery lasts 200k miles in 16 years, the cost per year with fuel is $4.7k. Now you should argue if Mira is more of an image car than Tesla. I am not going there...

Disclaimer: I bought a Certified Lexus LS430 for $30k on the road with 40k miles on it and many cars lasted 300k+ miles at 12k per yr. That means I can run this car for 260k miles in 22 years if I don't get bored. So cost per yr would be $1.4k and I get a paltry 18mpg. That would be $58k in 22yrs or  $2.6k per year. So, incuding fuel my cost is $4.1k per year.

Conclusion: My car is cheaper than Tesla and has the same amount of luxury without the hassle of charging or concern about range :-)

I will let the dust settle and take a look at what is available when I get bored with my car...


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