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Monday, October 5, 2015

Why I believe that most users will replace smart phones only if the phones die.

June 2007 - iPhone was a total revolution. If you could afford it you had to have it. There was nothing quite like it till then. The only other game in town was Nokia with Symbian. Not even close. Windows CE and windows  mobile was really PC interface on a phone. Apps were very few.

Nov 2008 - First commercial Android phone was released by HTC. HTC dream. Very poor man's iPhone with hardly any apps.

Oct 2009 - Android released SDK.

Jul 2010 - "On July 12, 2010, Google announced the availability of App Inventor for Android"

This started the really App development for Android. HTC Hero was the poor man's iPhone and allowed lot of tinkering by enthusiasts.

2015 - App war is over. Android actually overtook IOS apps just by sheer numbers in Google play store vs Apple App store. It is a mute point. Quantity is irrelevant. Quality, user experience, monetization by App developers are the key.

Market share of IOS is asymptotically approaching the market share of MacOS. Android has become the windows computer of the masses and those who want to tinker.

iPhone 6 came and size is no more an issue with IOS devices. People who like IOS interface will stay with it. Those who like Android interface will stay with it. If it works don't fix it.

Now that is the problem for Smart phone vendors. The phone they bought in 2012 is doing just fine for what people are using it for. What is magical about 3yrs? People used to replace laptops in about once in 3yrs because they are too slow to run the new bloated software or they died due to cost cutting lowering the durability. That has happened to smart phones.

My own anecdotal data point of 4. 2012 vintage Samsung Note 2 being used in my family by mom, wife, mother-in-law and when I briefly lost my Samsung Note 3 and used my old Note 2 for 2 days, it did not miss anything really.

So, folks like all things in consumer electronics, every gadget becomes a commodity with time. Time has come for smart phones to be commodities. Average user does not care about GHz, GBytes, ppi and I 3D touch is probably going to be a fad.

Gone are the days that bigger is better whether it is size, or performance.

What may sell is intelligent hardware and software combination which makes it much easier for smart phones to be used and very long battery life for sure. Solar anyone? Would you not like to charge your phone once a week or may be never?

What about reading out what is important to you when you wake up? Select email, status of stuff you ordered, traffic where you need to go, weather where you need to go, is any of your friends available when you mark as time available for an activity like coffee, lunch, walk, golf....







 










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