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Sunday, October 27, 2013

I looked at past 10yr return on S & P 500 in 1973. Here is what I found. Updated to Include Indian Rupee.

See S and P 500 index 10yr change spreadsheet.

Here is my observation.

Only 4 times those who invested a lump sum in S & P 500 and looked back
10 yrs later lost money. In all the cases they recovered their "loss" and made profit in 1 to 3yrs.

I am sure that those who blindly invested a fixed amount on the same day every month did just fine.

I believe that the long term investors are rewarded. Do you have the staying power?

I found USD to Indian Rupee exchange rate and found the following. Now it would be interesting to see Indian SENSEX Vs S & P 500 Index in Indian Rupee and see how will did Indian stock market actually do. The 2X differential in annualized return over a 50 yr period meant a multiple of 25 vs a whopping 324. I sent $10k to Indian in 1986 when the rate was around $13. That would be multipled by a factor of 8 if I invested in US S & P 500 and be worth $80k today. Back then a Toyota corolla would cost $10k. Now you could get a Lexus LS 460 for $80k. But then, we needed a car back then...

In other way of looking, the land value was Rs 25 per sq yard in 1982. Now it is Rs. 75,000. A huge multiple. That makes it a very wise investment.

That said an independent "bungalow" in hitech city is US $1Million. That tells me that many people looking to invest in real estate in India with that kind of money will probably look abroad for a better value and perhaps help the US real estate market if rich people in BRIC countries look for bargains in the US. 

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US $ INR
Starting 1963 69.86 334.63
Ending Oct 2013 1759.77 108419.43
Num of Years 30 30
Annualized return 11.35% 21.25%
Multiple 25 324

Saturday, October 26, 2013

My re-grouting project. 3 days of sweat equity and $100 in tools and materials.

The water was seeping into sub-floor from the Master bath. I had to let it dry for 6 days then use dremel to remove the old grout which took more than a day, grouting, drying, sealing and polishing off took 2 more days. For now bath room is back in use. Hiring a pro would have cost $1200.

If any one wants to re-grout, be prepared to spend 10% time shopping, 70% removing old grout, the deeper the better 5% applying grout and 15% cleaning, polishing tiles and overall cleanup. Much easier to do on a horizontal surface like counter top or bath vanity but the walls can be tough. You may give up and do re-model instead.

I used a Dremel 300 series tool I had long ago like this one
with a grout removal bit
and grout removal kit

I ended up destroying both the grout removal bits by the time I was done.
What I found was that the guide was not really smuch of a help once I got the hang of using the grout bit.

Walmart now sells a Dremel 3000 series now

Final photo below.


Sunday, October 13, 2013

iSmartAlarm alarm $340. Finally stable.

I copied and pasted my review on Amazon.com here.
Updated the review 12/19 after Firmware update to Cubeone base unit and Android App update.

The Cubeone firmware was updated early Dec. After that, I had a power outage and internet outage but the unit came back to normal. I did not have to reset any sensors. Also, the Android App was not failing as much. Then I upgraded to Android 4.3 on Dec 17th days and also the iSmartAlarm App was updated.
In the past 2 days, I did not see the Android App failing due to "data fail". Also, the notifications seem to be working without having to force stop the Android App and re-start. One interesting thing I noticed is that there is sometimes a time lag of 5 min before notifications come and all the notifications come almost at once. I changed my rating to 3 stars from 1 star. Acceptable. I will be updating the review again based on how the performance is for a few weeks. I want to see no more data fail errors or cubeone failing because it cannot connect to network even if that happens for 24hrs. Since there is no display on
Cubeone, I would like to see the Android App work as long as Cubeone and Android are on the same wifi network even if internet fails. If a sensor is breached even if Alarm is not activated, there needs to be some notificaton even if it means an option to chirp the Cubeone. Two be fair, their Application engineer Jerry was in touch quite often by email.

See www.ismartalarm.com

This unit comes with what looks like a cube, 2 door contact sensors, 1 motion sensor, 2 remote key tags. I used Samsung Galaxy Note 2 TMobile version running stock Android 4.1.2 with a version of the App I received from ismartalarm directly.

10/9/2013
Opened the box at 9:30am.

Plugged in the Cube to power and a port on my network switch

Removed the battery drain protection sleeve on 2 sensors and a key fob.

Installed ismartalarm app on T Mobile Galaxy Note 2 running stock Android 4.1.2 but just rooted.

Opened the App and it did find the cube on my network. That is where it stopped. Asks me to set network settings manually and app just stops when I hit done.

All the above happened in 15 minutes. Called the toll free number. I was told that a tech would call by 10:30 or so. He called at 11. He sent me one version of the App to create a log file. I did that. What I found out is that the App thinks that my phone is not on the same network as the Cube. I was promised a fix by the end of the day by Jerry Yu. I told him that I will return by tomorrow if I cannot activate it. He understands. To be fair, I did not have to wait to talk to anyone. I will update the review when I have something new. I wanted to save grief to another Android user. It may work with iPhone.

7:15pm
Received updated .apk file from Jerry Yu.
7:40pm
Read the email, loaded the updated and all of a sudden it worked!
9:20pm
Added 2 sensors, 2 control FOBs as well as my wife's identical smart phone. Now I will go ahead and get 4 more sensors to cover all my doors. Yes. I have so many exterior doors. I added the motion sensor but I have trouble testing motion even after 90 seconds. I am sure it is something simple.

10/10/13

Jerry called me and helped me test everything. He even got the email to work when a sensor is triggered. I found out that one of the remote tags was not seen on the device list on the Smartphone App. By the way, be aware that the version of the App I have is not yet on Google Play store. It will be submitted shortly. I suggest that you contact ismartalarm and check if your smartphone will work with their system. They are very good about customer response including the CEO. The CEO personally decided to give me 10% credit in paypal account on my total spending of $320 including 4 more sensors and already did it. I also got a Fedex shipping label after I filled out RMA form and sent it to them.

All this happened in 48hrs. Impressive for a new startup company. Disclaimer: I have no personal contacts or financial interest in this company. I am retired hitech professional who likes to try these things before average user can use them. I will write a blog one of these days on this topic.

I will update this review after I add 4 more sensors a HTC One and a Nexus 4 also in my family. Moral of this story, if it is not working call tech support before you return the device.

10/13/03

I received 4 contact sensors very fast after ordering. 2 of them activated just fine. 2 of them were wrongly recognized by the Android App (Not yet released to Google play FYI) that I got directly from the company as remote tags. I removed them using the App, shut down the cube. closed the android App completely, removed batteries from the wrongly recognized contact sensors (very easy to do), waited for the cube to come back up, opened the Android App, But the batteries back in the contact sensors, waited for 10 seconds or more, tried to add sensor. No sensors found. I tried this twice and sent email to Jerry and the CEO last night and asked if Jerry who happens to live just a mile away from me can actually come home on Monday morning to see what is happening.

On this basis, I am lowering my rating to 2 stars. Not really a reliable DIY product. I think, there should be a PC browser based App which works on all platforms PC, Mac, Ubuntu like the Nest alarm as long as the user is on the same network and authenticates with the server. I see too much dependence on the server. Basic functions MUST work even when there is internet outage as long as router is working and control and monitor devices are connected to the router.

I will update this review until I finish the system or return it. This is my longest review on Amazon.

10/26/03

The system has become a known devil. The Android App keeps crashing which means I don't get notified when a sensor is triggered. I do get phone call if the ismartalram server and my internet are workign which is hopefully 99% of the time. If you need 100% reliability, you need battery backup and sim card in the system to send text message to multiple numbers in your area or pay ADT or some one.

I hope the Android App to be released supposedly at the end of this month and also firmware upgrede in the cubeone would make the system more reliable.

Monday, October 7, 2013

End of monthly payments on my US landline and no more Vonage to call India.

I have had Vonage to call India for several years. Probably 8yrs. This year, I found a new choice to paying $30 a month after taxes.

How did I do it?

I first found that in the last 12 months ending mid June 2012, I called India for less than 4000 minutes. I realized that it would have cost me only 2 cents a minute using Google Voice or a calling card. That would have been $80 instead of $360.

Next I found out that Google Voice is free to call any US number unlimited.

Next I found out that a company called obihai has a device called Obi110 which is a bit smaller than Vonage adapter and connects to my router like the vonage adapter and bingo I have a landline for calling in the US for free.

Finally, I found out that I can get a cheap temp unlocked or T Mobile prepaid phone, transfer my Vonage number to it and from there transfer it to Google Voice for a total cost of $40 + the cost of phone. I now have a spare phone which is great. So, real cost is $40 to transfer and I got my money back in 45 days.

Is this bad news for Vonage? May be not. There are probably enough users who make more than 18000 minutes per yr or about 50min a day. Also, some of them have a vonage phone abroad so that their family can call the US unlimited. Google voice is not available for example in India to call US using the internet. At least that is what I am reading on internet.

However, skype works great and many of my friends I call frequently seem to have cheap android phones running skype. Now, that is a potential threat to Vonage. Microsoft could easily entice many people all over the world with free hotspot and free skype calling with their Windows phone to gain market share.

Some people I know were using magic jack in India. Now they seem to use Skype and Google hangout.

There is only one thing for sure. Constant change. Those who can adapt come out ahead....

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

How I view the Media and gadgets these days.

It is been a while since I posted anything. What has changed in media use since the last post?

Sold my old Tivo Series 3 for $300 and bought Tivo series 4 with lifetime service for $400. Main reason: instant streaming from and Tivo to others rather than transfer and watch. Android App suddenly makes all 6 tuners available even on Internet. Netflix interface is much nicer and allows me add/remove from the que without using a bluray player or a computer or smartphone. Wife likes that.

However, I discovered chromecast. Great to watch netflix or youtube.
No searching using arrows and enter button anymore.

My WDTV live player has been gathering dust because I found out that it does not support multichannel audio I get using makemkv from DVD or Bluray.

Switched to no contract T Mobile and Galaxy Note 2. Much easier on the eyes and great for GPS. Sorry Garmin. Don't even remember when I last used it. Even my wife has not used her Garmin. Wonder how they survive.

Dumped Vonage phone. Ported the number to a prepaid T Mobile and then to Google Voice. I use obi110 since June 2013 and Google as my land line. I found that my contacts in India have switched to Android phones and Skype. Very few international calls to India at 2cents a min using Google.

Longer home video using camcorder is now a thing of the past. Few 1 minute clips at a time and photos shared on Google+.

Stopped using my old garmin watch for tracking exercise. Google My Tracks and Endomondo on Android are just fine.

My crystal ball 3 years from now:

4k x 2k 65" TV for less than $2k to come to family room. Next phone to record in 4k x 2k. Next laptop perhaps a 13.3" 2560 x 1600 tablet running all applications and 802.11ac wireless to display on TV.

Bluray to be 4k x 2k.

Garmin, Blackberry gone. All TVs made in China.

No electric car to replace gasoline. Just gas/electric hybrid.

Custom order smart phones on Amazon built in America. No subsidy. No contract. Pay per use internet like electricity.