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Sunday, October 27, 2013

I looked at past 10yr return on S & P 500 in 1973. Here is what I found. Updated to Include Indian Rupee.

See S and P 500 index 10yr change spreadsheet.

Here is my observation.

Only 4 times those who invested a lump sum in S & P 500 and looked back
10 yrs later lost money. In all the cases they recovered their "loss" and made profit in 1 to 3yrs.

I am sure that those who blindly invested a fixed amount on the same day every month did just fine.

I believe that the long term investors are rewarded. Do you have the staying power?

I found USD to Indian Rupee exchange rate and found the following. Now it would be interesting to see Indian SENSEX Vs S & P 500 Index in Indian Rupee and see how will did Indian stock market actually do. The 2X differential in annualized return over a 50 yr period meant a multiple of 25 vs a whopping 324. I sent $10k to Indian in 1986 when the rate was around $13. That would be multipled by a factor of 8 if I invested in US S & P 500 and be worth $80k today. Back then a Toyota corolla would cost $10k. Now you could get a Lexus LS 460 for $80k. But then, we needed a car back then...

In other way of looking, the land value was Rs 25 per sq yard in 1982. Now it is Rs. 75,000. A huge multiple. That makes it a very wise investment.

That said an independent "bungalow" in hitech city is US $1Million. That tells me that many people looking to invest in real estate in India with that kind of money will probably look abroad for a better value and perhaps help the US real estate market if rich people in BRIC countries look for bargains in the US. 

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US $ INR
Starting 1963 69.86 334.63
Ending Oct 2013 1759.77 108419.43
Num of Years 30 30
Annualized return 11.35% 21.25%
Multiple 25 324

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