So you think 2014 wil be down in US Stock market. Think again.

Update 9/4/14: When I wrote this 7 months ago and boldly predicted that for the next 10 yrs, the growth per yr would be 6.1%, S & P 500 was at1848 and today 2006. That is 8.54% in 7 months. I guess I got it right. Don't be surprised if it is flat till the Christmas sales are reported in Jan 2015. In the mean time, 1.8% dividend in S & P 500 is better than the near zero or even negative return in a bank.

I looked at the last 57yrs.

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				7.6%	Average change in S & P 500 was 7.6% per year.
					In the last 57 years, the average below 8% or negative for 20 years
					Best performance was in 1982 34%. 2013 was 26%.
					1994 to 1998 had 18 to 30% per year
					1994 to 1998 had 18 to 30% per year
				8.4%	Average per yr over last 20years
				6.1%	Average per yr over last 10years
					Average per yr over next 10yrs could well be over 6.1%
DATE	VALUE	Absolute Change last 10yrs	% Change last 10yrs	% Change last 1 yr	Comments
Average			113%		In 10 yrs more than doubled on the average.
					Losses in 4 of the 30 10 yr periods recovered in 1 to 3 years
1957-01-01	44
1958-01-01	46			4%
1959-01-01	57			24%
1960-01-01	56			-3%
1961-01-01	66			19%
1962-01-01	62			-6%
1963-01-01	70			12%
1964-01-01	81			16%
1965-01-01	88			8%
1966-01-01	85			-3%
1967-01-01	92			8%
1968-01-01	98			7%
1969-01-01	98			-1%
1970-01-01	83			-15%
1971-01-01	98			18%
1972-01-01	109			11%
1973-01-01	107	38	54%	-2%
1974-01-01	83	1	2%	-23%
1975-01-01	86	-2	-2%	4%
1976-01-01	102	17	20%	18%	Money invested in 1965 recovered and went over 88 1 yr after the 10 yr period
1977-01-01	98	6	7%	-4%
1978-01-01	96	-2	-2%	-2%
1979-01-01	103	5	5%	7%	Money invested in 1968 recovered and went over 98 1yr after the 10 yr period
1980-01-01	119	36	43%	15%
1981-01-01	128	30	30%	8%
1982-01-01	120	11	10%	-7%
1983-01-01	160	53	49%	34%
1984-01-01	160	78	94%	-0%
1985-01-01	187	101	117%	16%
1986-01-01	236	134	132%	27%
1987-01-01	287	189	192%	21%
1988-01-01	266	170	177%	-7%
1989-01-01	323	220	214%	22%
1990-01-01	335	216	182%	4%
1991-01-01	376	248	194%	12%
1992-01-01	416	296	247%	11%
1993-01-01	452	291	181%	9%
1994-01-01	460	300	187%	2%
1995-01-01	542	355	190%	18%
1996-01-01	671	434	184%	24%
1997-01-01	873	586	204%	30%
1998-01-01	1086	820	308%	24%
1999-01-01	1327	1004	311%	22%
2000-01-01	1427	1093	327%	8%
2001-01-01	1194	818	217%	-16%
2002-01-01	994	578	139%	-17%
2003-01-01	965	514	114%	-3%
2004-01-01	1131	670	146%	17%
2005-01-01	1207	666	123%	7%
2006-01-01	1310	640	95%	9%
2007-01-01	1477	604	69%	13%
2008-01-01	1220	135	12%	-17%
2009-01-01	948	-379	-29%	-22%
2010-01-01	1140	-287	-20%	20%
2011-01-01	1268	73	6%	11%
2012-01-01	1379	385	39%	9%	Money invested in 1999 recovered and went over 1327 3yrs after the 10 yr period
2013-01-01	1466	501	52%	6%	Money invested in 2000 recovered and went over 1427 3yrs after the 10 yr period
2014-01-01	1848	717	63%	26%